India’s economy is performing poorly, at least compared to its relative dynamism just a few years ago. With a general election to be concluded by the end of May 2014, many are looking to the country’s next government to break India out of its economic doldrums. Pre-poll surveys (whether you like them or not) have predicted a strong wave of support for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. It is expected that a business friendly environment and policies that support the health care sector may well be on the cards if this was indeed to happen.
I am certainly hopeful that a BJP led govt comes to power at the Centre with a majority mandate. This will ensure that the government has a free hand to set the economic agenda of the country. This is, of course, assuming that the agenda will favor right leaning economic policies all the way which may not be likely.
Are changes to India’s health policy likely?
At the moment, it is speculative to say what the changes in policy are likely to be since the BJP has not spelt out its agenda or made its “Vision 2025″ document publicly available. That said, the only thing one can be fairly certain about is that market sentiment will be buoyed only if the political environment remains stable. It will be a shame if a fractured mandate forces any party to align with parties of opposed ideologies – or God forbid – an Alternate Front comes to power.
On the health policy, I can be fairly certain that a new govt will have two important things to address: 1) reduce the current account deficit (to control inflation and prices) and 2) bring in revenues to a depleted treasury. To work towards these two objectives, it can be fairly assumed that industry friendly policies will be adopted since welfare schemes are populist in nature and cannot be withdrawn in India.
While the FDI policy is clear (uncapped), the same is not true of areas such as clinical trials and IPR. The BJP manifesto promises to support industry that transfers technology into India. If this happens, we may see FDI flow into greenfield projects which has been quite slow so far. However, this will require complexities such as the Land Acquisition Bill, Labour laws etc. to be simplified. At the moment it is assumed that a Modi govt will be more inclined to push Economic Reforms 2.0 than the UPA was. This means that we may see a fillip to the industry overall.
If the govt pursues industry friendly policies we are unlikely to see capped pricing on patented drugs but a more nuanced approach to balance prices of medicines and access. There maybe an inclination to strengthen insurance coverage through RSBY and the private sector, state-purchase and distribution of medicines through the Jan Aushadi 2.0 scheme, more hospitals through PPPs etc.
What will be very interesting is to see how the IPR issue is tackled. I believe this is more a diplomatic failure and grandiose posturing rather than a real issue. There have been more cases of CLs being rejected than issued. Validity of patents have been upheld fairly, so I feel it is unfair to term India’s IPR regime as “fluid”. India has the responsibility of protecting the health interests of its citizens and it should continue to do so. The issue can easily be laid to rest through some deft diplomacy which a govt strengthened by stability can achieve.
Another development that hasn’t captured public imagination and debate in India is the US sponsored TPP agreement. Indian generic players can be strongly impacted if the TPP comes into effect and the US de-prioritizes India as a result of the agreement.
Will the new government pursue Universal Health Care?
UHC is something that has been on the cards of all political parties for a long time. However, there seems to be no clear direction on how to progress. With the BJP proposing to support federalism and strengthening the state govts, it remains to be seen if they will put their money where their collective mouths are and first, increase spending on healthcare as a % of GDP to at least 3% (the WHO mandates 6%) and second, transfer a bulk of that money to state govts.
This is the tricky part. Opinion polls have shown that the BJP will rule at best in 15 out of 29 states. Assuming 100% of BJP states comply with UHC, ~50% of India’s population would be deemed to be covered. This is in line with the UPA govts plan of increasing health coverage to about 52% of the population, up from the currently covered 35%.
This alone would be a significant step to achieve in 5 years since UHC would involve a paradigm shift in health policies and programs in favor of vulnerable population groups, restructuring of public health cadres, reorientation of undergraduate medical education, more emphasis on public health research, and extensive education campaigns
What should the new government’s focus be?
The one big issue would be to ensure quality and affordable health for all its citizens. It is criminal that after almost seven decades, Free India still cannot save mothers and babies from dying, ensuring that the sick get treated without either going bankrupt or being turned away from hospitals for not being able to pay and that productivity of its citizens is so sub-optimal. No Right to Education can make a malnourished child learn. No Right to Food can save lives of children who do not know it is important to wash their hands before eating. No Right to Information can empower the sick and the disabled. No aspiring superpower can afford to miss so badly on MDGs.
Only when its populace is healthy can India think of educating its young, employing its youth and caring for its elderly. Health can have a multiplier effect on the GDP of India. And it must be available freely and equitably to every citizen of this country.
Will the change be for the better?
Apart from progressing on UHC, the present government could have done a lot to ensure that the health care sector was seen as a attractive destination to investors. While there are statistics to show that the sector still is attractive, it has been badly dogged by several flip-flops from the government, be it on clinical trials, on FDI, on drug pricing, on IPR, or on frowning on acquisitions. With the global economic crisis and govts across the world cutting back on health care costs, India had a golden opportunity to position itself as a world class health provider. Formidable terms such as “largest number of FDA approved plants outside the US”, “pharmacy to the world”, “medical value travel destination of the world” were all lost to other nations who grabbed the opportunities with open hands.
Over the last decade, India was a tragic case of epithets becoming epitaphs. There are no silver bullets here. Tackling these issues is a very big project. But the present system needs to change. Many countries have successfully transformed similar systems after seeing them lead to a rise outlays but a drop in outcomes. The next government must do what it can to help push India toward similar progress.